Sebastian Koehler

selected publications

1. Fiscal Governance in the Eurozone: How Effectively Does the Stability and Growth Pact Limit Governmental Debt in the Euro Countries?

   Koehler, Sebastian, and König, Thomas

   Political Science Research and Methods 2015

   Abs Bib

   The European sovereign debt crisis continues to hold Europe and the world captive. Will the euro and the fiscal mechanism of the eurozone survive? And how effective is the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)? Do the euro countries generally fail to comply with the rules of fiscal governance, or does the eurozone need a more member-specific fiscal mechanism? This article examines whether and how the SGP influenced the development of government debt making in the euro countries after the introduction of the common currency. While the SGP could not prevent euro countries from exceeding their deficits, this study’s synthetic control analysis reveals that the mechanism has effectively reduced the overall government debt of euro countries since 1999. In particular, donor countries were able to control governmental spending, while many recipient countries—including Greece, Portugal and Italy—have increased government debt ever since, resulting in the European sovereign debt crisis. This suggests that while the SGP effectively constrained overall government debt making, a more sophisticated mechanism is required for safeguarding compliance in large recipient countries.

   @article{koehler_fiscal_2015,
     title = {Fiscal {Governance} in the {Eurozone}: {How} {Effectively} {Does} the {Stability} and {Growth} {Pact} {Limit} {Governmental} {Debt} in the {Euro} {Countries}?},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     selected = {true},
     volume = {3},
     issn = {2049-8489},
     shorttitle = {Fiscal {Governance} in the {Eurozone}},
     url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S2049847014000260},
     doi = {10.1017/psrm.2014.26},
     number = {02},
     urldate = {2016-08-28},
     journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
     author = {Koehler, Sebastian and König, Thomas},
     year = {2015},
     pages = {329--351},
     file = {Cambridge Journals Snapshot:/home/sebkoehle/Zotero/storage/WRV5QBVS/displayAbstract.html:text/html;Snapshot:/home/sebkoehle/Zotero/storage/5JG9I87T/7752ED69E1A60EFF1A242FDD36467226.html:text/html;Full Text PDF:/home/sebkoehle/Zotero/storage/ZLL8GYV2/Koehler and König - 2015 - Fiscal Governance in the Eurozone How Effectively.pdf:application/pdf}
   }

2. Lobbying, Political Uncertainty and Policy Outcomes

   Koehler, Sebastian

   2019

   Abs Bib

   This book analyses interest group communication strategies in parliamentary political systems, and considers how political uncertainty, which emerges from the political process, shapes interest group communication strategies. It develops a formal model of lobbying in a bicameral legislature with strong party discipline, and discusses why interest groups choose public or private communication channels to influence political bargaining. The book tests its hypothesis in different policy contexts, including lobbying on major legislation in the field of labour and social policy.

   @book{koehler_lobbying_2019,
     address = {New York, NY},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     selected = {true},
     title = {Lobbying, {Political} {Uncertainty} and {Policy} {Outcomes}},
     isbn = {978-3-319-97054-7},
     language = {Englisch},
     publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
     author = {Koehler, Sebastian},
     year = {2019}
   }

3. Data Access, Transparency, and Replication: New Insights from the Political Behavior Literature

   Stockemer, Daniel, Koehler, Sebastian, and Lentz, Tobias

   PS: Political Science & Politics 2018

   Abs Bib

   Do researchers share their quantitative data and are the quantitative results that are published in political science journals replicable? We attempt to answer these questions by analyzing all articles published in the 2015 issues of three political behaviorist journals (i.e., Electoral Studies, Party Politics, and Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties)—all of which did not have a binding data-sharing and replication policy as of 2015. We found that authors are still reluctant to share their data; only slightly more than half of the authors in these journals do so. For those who share their data, we mainly confirmed the initial results reported in the respective articles in roughly 70% of the times. Only roughly 5% of the articles yielded significantly different results from those reported in the publication. However, we also found that roughly 25% of the articles organized the data and/or code so poorly that replication was impossible.

   @article{stockemer_data_2018,
     title = {Data {Access}, {Transparency}, and {Replication}: {New} {Insights} from the {Political} {Behavior} {Literature}},
     volume = {51},
     selected = {true},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     issn = {1049-0965, 1537-5935},
     shorttitle = {Data {Access}, {Transparency}, and {Replication}},
     url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/data-access-transparency-and-replication-new-insights-from-the-political-behavior-literature/64CA07CBA652E299079FF32BC5A6DCB3},
     doi = {10.1017/S1049096518000926},
     language = {en},
     number = {4},
     urldate = {2018-12-10},
     journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics},
     author = {Stockemer, Daniel and Koehler, Sebastian and Lentz, Tobias},
     year = {2018},
     pages = {799--803}
   }